On last week’s Not Your Average Investor Show, we put Detroit and Jacksonville side by side across three different time horizons to see where a rental property investor’s money grows the most over the long haul.
The 6.2% Detroit Sales Pitch
Investors are currently being pitched turnkey deals in Detroit by providers highlighting a specific, eye-popping statistic: 6.2% home price appreciation over the last year (2023–2024).
In that same period, Jacksonville’s year-over-year growth sat at a much quieter 0.1%.
It’s easy to see why investors get excited when they see those two numbers side-by-side, but looking at data in such a short window is often a “classic example” of having data without the necessary perspective.
Perspective Over Data Points
Short-term growth is fickle and hard to predict, but if you average growth out over decades, it becomes highly predictable.
Because rental property investing is a “get rich slow” game, your results depend on long-term averages, not one-year snapshots.
👉 Detroit’s Recent Growth Through a 40-Year Lens
Here is how the two markets actually compare when you look at the full picture:
Home price appreciation doesn’t happen in a vacuum; it is driven by population growth.
- Jacksonville: Population has surged +134% since 1981.
- Detroit: Population has declined by ~22% in that same period.
The Takeaway:That extra 0.9% of annual growth Jacksonville has maintained over 40 years isn’t just a “nice-to-have” stat; it translates to hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional wealth per rental over the life of your investment.
Is the Growth Sustainable?
Nate, a viewer from Detroit in our chat, noted that while there is short-term growth in his hometown, he’s skeptical about the 10-year outlook due to increasing property taxes, utilities, and potential state income tax hikes.
👉 Why Jacksonville’s Long-Term Growth Story Is Just Getting Started
To understand if a market has staying power, look for these sustainable tailwinds:
- Economic Diversity: Jacksonville’s economy is a well-balanced mix of logistics, healthcare, finance, FinTech, and government; no single sector dominates or creates outsized risk.
- Young Talent: The University of Florida is establishing a graduate campus in downtown Jacksonville, powered by one of the largest public AI supercomputers in the country, designed to drive AI-first jobs in healthcare and finance.
The Value Play: Jacksonville is the only major city in Florida still priced below $350k. Meaning- people are still moving there to reduce their cost of living from inside and outside the state.
NOT YOUR AVERAGE INSIGHT: Localized Buzz Versus Revitalization
👉 What $6.5 Billion in Downtown Construction Does to Surrounding Home Prices
There is a fundamental difference in how these two cities are revitalizing.
In Detroit, the revitalization is highly localized; the downtown core is thriving, and neighborhoods like Grosse Pointe are doing well, but the vast majority of the city hasn’t seen that prosperity “trickle out”.
Jacksonville is the inverse. Our “workforce housing” neighborhoods (the areas where most of our investors own) form a solid foundation of positive cash flow and have outperformed the city’s overall average for home price appreciation for 10+ years. And downtown hasn’t even “turned on” yet.
With $6.5 billion in active construction and a population nearing the “10,000 resident” tipping point, Jacksonville’s downtown is a “once-in-a-generation” catalyst. When downtowns successfully revitalize, surrounding home prices have historically jumped 89% more than the national average since 2005.
In Detroit, you’re buying into a finished (and localized) success story. In Jacksonville, you’re buying into a city-wide growth trend that is about to get a massive downtown “booster rocket”.
Don’t trip over dollars to pick up pennies. Buy for the long-term trend, not the short-term buzz.